Questions from a new subscriber
A new subscriber posed some questions that may be of general interest. Thank you for asking, here the answers: Are the signals based on what the model thinks will happen after 6 bars/hours or the full 24? All the signals, except the bars projected into the future, are reading of the status of the market…
Don’t get fooled by poets
Yesterday I read this https://medium.com/@nitin_pande/deep-neural-nets-and-the-purpose-of-life-d3d60a38d108#.l6m5b6bch and I have to say I couldn’t dissent more. No way a biological structure can be compared to a software tool, even if this software is someway inspired by what we know of the brain structure. And we are not DNN (Deep Neural Networks), as the author Nitin Pande suggests. Luckily, we are…
About Artificial Stupidity
The coming age of thinking machines is already here. All manufactures around the world are substituting worker with specialized robots and a new subdivision of work is raising. Artificial intelligence (AI) is spreading into a lot of different fields, but always with the same purpose: obtain more efficient results and profits. A computer (and its mechanical…
Exploring deep learning
“In the last couple of years, deep learning techniques have transformed the world of artificial intelligence. One by one, the abilities and techniques that humans once imagined were uniquely our own have begun to fall to the onslaught of ever more powerful machines. Deep neural networks are now better than humans at tasks such as…
Artificial Intelligence: a view from 1990
“If neural networks are such great pattern matchers and can be used for prediction and forecasting, then can they be used to predict the stock market? If so, we can all get rich. Naturally, such thinking is to be expected and someone tried to do it [White, 1988]. He used NLS and feedforward neural networks to predict daily…
A glance into deep future
My monthly forecast goes ahead 24 months (2 full years) from the present, and shows what path is the market price following. Some of my readers ask to have an indication, an insight, a suggestion and today I want to share some of the valuable information produced from the monthly model. First, there is no…
Bifurcation
Bifurcation is a market behavior that you get aware of when deeply analyzing it. I means that almost identical condition may produce opposite exit direction. Today is one of those days. You may say it’s easy to preview, as Yellen speaks and her market manipulation is absolute. Yes, but the model doesn’t know of Yellen’s discourse or…
Only S&P 500 here
Why do I make forecasts only for S&P 500? As I have extensively explained, in the database I have hundreds of price line that represent the global markets environment, so what does inhibit to apply the methodology to each of them and be able to forecast almost everything? Well, I did (and do) try to…
Responsive and adaptive
Forecast charts from May 05, 2016 The forecast charts are the output of the Amodel. All the work, all the code, all the information that is produced here it is put in there, in the chart. The model is designed to be adaptive and responsive, so that it adapts to (chaotic) ever changing markets. Under specific…
Know in advance
What does “know in advance” means, here at spxbot? I want to make you an example, so that you can evaluate – I know it’s difficult to believe that something impossible (as forecasting the market) can be done On 15th of July I published the usual daily forecast and what it was saying was: two weeks…
The Realm of Imprecision
Shown in the chart: 1 daily bar forecast comparison with actual close. I get confirm that there is a widespread one day lagging in computations. Need to work on it. Except bars projection, all other indicators read the realtime status, now. They do not project future values, they just get a reading of the edge. But…
Faster, Faster
This is a cut out of the monthly chart produced by the Amodel. It is one of the most precious tools of the group and in this peculiar case it shows a common behavior of the forecast process (as well as the expected growth of the current and the next months): reality goes always a bit faster…
Brute Force
[W]hen I write here, I usually have in mind an investor, as a reader. Averagely, a professional with a certain wealth, that uses markets to park money with an interesting rate of return. There are a lot of available techniques that let you shape an investment idea and then you have to trigger decisions and operate.…
Apocalypse Now!
The market has undoubtly taken the upside, and a strong and vigorous sprout is blooming. It will take time, but it will flower. When I say the market here I refer to the S&P 500 index and the index is booming. It’s like looking at a rocket launch: few seconds after the start it is…
Traditional analysis is out of touch
I’ve found and corrected a couple of minor bugs in the Signal and in the target models (minor logical errors that under some circumstances did crash the whole code!) and this has made me think that the Signal model acts similarly to the bifurcation model under fractal theory. The market is a chaotic self-adapting structure,…