Some basic things
The foundations of Artificial Intelligence (a.i.) are two software areas: Expert Systems and Neural Networks. Expert Systems have a small niche and Neural Networks have become the core of almost any a.i.
There is A.I. and A.I.
I used a public domain website to generate the content for a post starting from the title “Using Artificial Intelligence in Your Trading Strategy to Maximize Returns”
A matter of frequencies: a new model
It all started as a standard revision routine. The code analysis tool showed some issues (it shows a lot of issues, definitively) that could be easily corrected.
How r.Virgeel is trained
Following the requests coming from some users that were initially confused about how to interpret the signals coming out from r.Virgeel, I think that nothing is better than to explain how the indicators are produced. I have never done it before so extensively. The process is very different from the calculations for a technical indicator…
Forecast/ability 2
In the previous post “Forecast/ability” I did refer to the daily a.i. forecasts and I showed the results of a long and extensive research on the quality of the response of the model. But when we come to the weekly and to the monthly forecast, things change radically and for the best. Undoubtedly, weekly and…
Forecast/ability
Following my previous post “New Tools at the Horizon“, one question was twirling in my mind: why the stock market is forecastable, but the forecasts are not affordable? The forecastability of the market is an evidence, because if it were not – being it just a random walk – there would not be the possibility…
spxbot limits
Different trading and investing styles I’m fully aware of the basic fact that every trader and investor has its own style. Many schools of thinking, but everyone is really different, particularly in the private sector. If a private trader survives the first 18 months without being wiped out, then she/he may have the possibility to…
The Indicators
This post explains the main website feature: the indicators that form r.Virgeel vision of the market. The indicators are: Bars ahead – neurally calculated – H/L/C is forecasted for the next 24 bars Target– neurally calculated – where the current move is heading Stop – neurally calculated- a value that confirm the trend and generates…
Riding the wave and then… splash!
Following my previous post, I would like to point out that approaching the a.i. advisory, you have to change your mind. With most probability, you are trained in technical analysis, various techniques to train your eye and numbers to correlate the stream of data. With an extended application to chart reading and some discipline, it’s…
Psychological consequences of a.i. advisory
If you are a happy trader, you can avoid reading this post. You have your instruments and techniques and take home your living. You are in the 5%. This post is written for the other 95%. Yes, 95% of traders go broke, in the first 12-18 months of activity. The market is merciless with the fool…
Avant snow apres sky
Trading is like skying. You always make the same simple moves (start, end, turn right, turn left) and the same tracks, but never in the same way. Never the same weather, snow condition, visibility, temperature, and so on: every time it’s different. Imagine that the neural network knows the track. It does not guarantee…
The Lazy Investor and A.I.
Artificial intelligence is for lazy investors and this for two orders of reasons: it reduces the frequency of trading actions and it relieves you from the necessity of having an opinion. Any of our action requires an opinion and, in trading, our opinions are, usually, like TNT in the hands of a chimp. It’s a…
Artificial Intelligence is different
Trading is one of the easiest activities around: few seconds and you are in position, few seconds and you are out of your position. Making it profitable is a totally different discourse. Libraries are plenty of technical and fundamental analysis books and the internet is plenty of websites that offer amazing returns. All of them…
Artificial Intelligence core explained
It’s not my aim to explain how Artificial Intelligence works and I never tried to, just sometimes I’ve discussed the media approach on the topic. I’ve seen this video and it explains quite well how the core of this technology works. We are speaking about back-propagation neural network, the pattern recognition engine that works at…
The Dark Side of the Spreadsheet
I have read the following https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604087/the-dark-secret-at-the-heart-of-ai/ and, again, I thought about the misinterpretation that Artificial Intelligence is going through. Do your remember Visicalc? Probably not. Visicalc was the first spreadsheet, 20 rows by 5 column (!) by Dan Bricklin with Bob Frankston. It was 1978. The Spreadsheet! The tools that makes the world go around……
Do we need Artificial Intelligence?
I’m wandering: do we need Artificial Intelligence to recognize that we are in a bull market? When you are inside a trend, corrections are our friends and the fear of the top (or bottom) is our recurrent trouble. But, surfing is easy with a trendy market. Stay hungry, stay long.
Artificial Intelligence vs. Natural Stupidity
I imagine that many readers interested in the Artificial Intelligence topic are getting used to a very romantic view of the argument. The majority of the articles you may read present anxious questions about a technocratic future generated and managed by AI driven machines. Is this wrong? Not at all, but this is the romantic…
The hidden disorder of the market
Often, you read someone that has the key of the “hidden order” of the markets and is so kind and altruist to share such a knowledge with you. Can you trust? Can you believe? In my opinion, after years of testing and developing the artificial intelligence model that powers this site, there is no hidden…
Does this stock market scares you?
I read an article today that highlights the fact that a lot of investors are scared by this current stock market. The stock market is moving opposite to almost any prevision made by mainstream media, it should have crashed after Trump election or Brexit, and instead it is rising madly and without rest. All this rises confusion…
Never seen before
In the rising market, you are continuously convinced that a crash is imminent and this is the fuel that makes the market grow, having a lot of people on the wrong side. We are watching it in the latest months, whenever the downturn seems inevitable, the market turns up blindly, no way. If I should…
Noise
Noise is everywhere. We could even argue that trends are made out of noise. Inside massive markets, volatility can be your worst enemy: psychology again comes on stage. Every turn in the price creates uncertainty and uncertainty accumulates. Our confusion grows. It’s difficult to make correct investment decisions and timing when in confusion. If…
Trading opinions
Every trader and investor has her/his own framework of opinions that pilot the triggers. It is a mix of experience, knowledge and emotions. As your decisions are worth a gain, you have an euphorical sensation that you are mastering the forces that drive the market, but on the other side if your decisions take you…
New attitude for new market
It is almost one year that the spxbot.com site is on and three and a half years since I begun developing the model. Well, many previous experiences have built the necessary skills, but this is the timing. No, it’s not time to draw conclusions, the work is still going on – will it ever last?…
No divinations
I’m always here to show something obscure coming in from the future, but today I’d like to to just fix a point in the present. No divinations. The chart is speaking. This is a CFD continuous chart daily bars of S&P 500 index. We know the market is discounting a crucial event in less the…