To know in advance
On 23rd of September the model has produced this forecast. It was Friday, and usually as the week closes the model is sharper in viewing into the future. As well as it seems that Thursday forecasts are the weaker, and here I just guess an interpretation: Thursday reflects all the noise accumulated during the week,…
Some data about model performance
I’m sure that my (few) readers are curious of one thing: how the system has performed? percentage, percentage… I can’t blame you, even if I’m not very excited by past performance of any system. Performance percentages let’s you dream and are very dangerous 😉 But this is not a technical analysis automation or an algorithmic trader…
The model and COT
You may wonder if does the model contains data from the COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS weekly data? No, the COT data (a report published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, that disaggregate the open interest of future contracts) is not part of the weekly model because, after a long experimentation, it resulted completely irrelevant.…
Cassandra was hated by her fellow citizens
“Actually, I’m surprised that there aren’t more sites like SPXBOT out there”, he writes to me. No doubt, it is one of the best compliments I’ve received so far. Yes, it was not easy to build the system: programming, trading experience, and a lot of time were the the main ingredients. Consider that what I…
Don’t get fooled by poets
Yesterday I read this https://medium.com/@nitin_pande/deep-neural-nets-and-the-purpose-of-life-d3d60a38d108#.l6m5b6bch and I have to say I couldn’t dissent more. No way a biological structure can be compared to a software tool, even if this software is someway inspired by what we know of the brain structure. And we are not DNN (Deep Neural Networks), as the author Nitin Pande suggests. Luckily, we are…
About Artificial Stupidity
The coming age of thinking machines is already here. All manufactures around the world are substituting worker with specialized robots and a new subdivision of work is raising. Artificial intelligence (AI) is spreading into a lot of different fields, but always with the same purpose: obtain more efficient results and profits. A computer (and its mechanical…
Exploring deep learning
“In the last couple of years, deep learning techniques have transformed the world of artificial intelligence. One by one, the abilities and techniques that humans once imagined were uniquely our own have begun to fall to the onslaught of ever more powerful machines. Deep neural networks are now better than humans at tasks such as…
Artificial Intelligence: a view from 1990
“If neural networks are such great pattern matchers and can be used for prediction and forecasting, then can they be used to predict the stock market? If so, we can all get rich. Naturally, such thinking is to be expected and someone tried to do it [White, 1988]. He used NLS and feedforward neural networks to predict daily…
Bifurcation
Bifurcation is a market behavior that you get aware of when deeply analyzing it. I means that almost identical condition may produce opposite exit direction. Today is one of those days. You may say it’s easy to preview, as Yellen speaks and her market manipulation is absolute. Yes, but the model doesn’t know of Yellen’s discourse or…
Responsive and adaptive
Forecast charts from May 05, 2016 The forecast charts are the output of the Amodel. All the work, all the code, all the information that is produced here it is put in there, in the chart. The model is designed to be adaptive and responsive, so that it adapts to (chaotic) ever changing markets. Under specific…
Know in advance
What does “know in advance” means, here at spxbot? I want to make you an example, so that you can evaluate – I know it’s difficult to believe that something impossible (as forecasting the market) can be done On 15th of July I published the usual daily forecast and what it was saying was: two weeks…
The Realm of Imprecision
Shown in the chart: 1 daily bar forecast comparison with actual close. I get confirm that there is a widespread one day lagging in computations. Need to work on it. Except bars projection, all other indicators read the realtime status, now. They do not project future values, they just get a reading of the edge. But…
Traditional analysis is out of touch
I’ve found and corrected a couple of minor bugs in the Signal and in the target models (minor logical errors that under some circumstances did crash the whole code!) and this has made me think that the Signal model acts similarly to the bifurcation model under fractal theory. The market is a chaotic self-adapting structure,…